Thursday, March 18, 2010

Governing from the Left

Although mainstream media won't admit it, the US population, in general,  is somewhat right of center politically speaking (not as far right as I would like, but somewhat conservative).  That's what makes governing from the left such a difficult task over the long run.

We've only had two left-leaning presidents in the last 40 years, Carter and Clinton.  I don't remember the specifics of the Carter administration, but the Clinton years were interesting.  Clinton campaigned as more of a liberal than he ended up governing.  Of course, we had the Gingrich-authored Contract With America midway into Clinton's first term, and when Clinton was re-elected in '96, the Republicans re-took the House and Gingrich was Speaker throughout Clinton's last four years.  Although I personally don't care for Clinton's morals or his political leanings, he did manage to move much more to the political center, and the legislative process functioned decently enough throughout his presidency.

We have a much different story today.  We've got a House Speaker who very much wants to control things.  The far-left players are seizing this opportunity to cram through as much social engineering as they possibly can in light of the small window of time they have.  1600 Pennsylvania Ave is filled with a bunch of Chicago thugs intent to use every bullying tactic and political trick to accomplish their agenda.

The sad part is that true cost-controlling changes in health care will never be addressed as long as the Administration presses for their policies.

The topic of finance reform, which I'm more interested in, is even worse.  I'm sure we could have bipartisan agreement on meaningful and productive changes in the regulatory framework, banking capital requirements that aren't punitive and pro-cyclical, derivative clearing that still allows the financial system to function, resolution authority for non-banking but systemically-critical institutions, etc.  The tragedy is that we won't get there because the Administration is intent on waging warfare against the investor class and inciting populist furor against those greedy...(fill in the blank with your favorite villain - Bankers, Insurance Companies, Oil Companies, Hedge Funds, Private Equity Firms, Pharmaceuticals, etc).

With political history as a guide, we should see a sharp turn to the right in the coming years.  The mid-terms should be favorable for the Republicans, and Obama better be a one-termer.  This assumes, of course, the Republicans can put forward candidates who can articulate the virtues of the conservative ideals.  Forty percent of the electorate will always vote Democratic, and forty percent will always vote Republican.  Although Reagan was able to capture a significant portion of southern and working-class Democrats, the battle is usually for the twenty percent in the middle.  I think they're ready to vote Republican so long as the candidate isn't afraid to advocate true conservative principles.